UCLA struggling: Must be down year for Pac-10 - Tucson Citizen

UCLA and Arizona have a history of tugging at each other, like the UA's Mustafa Shakur did here in 2007 with UCLA's Darren Collison, for Pac-10 supremacy (Tucson Citizen photo)

The numbers bear it out: Generally when UCLA goes, so goes the Pac-10.

It’s a no-brainer to suggest the conference can survive when Oregon State is in a down year. However, when the Bruins are in ruins, the Pac-10 more often than not follows suit.

Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1984-85, the Bruins have failed to qualify five times. In those five years, the average number of Pac-10 teams that advanced to the NCAA tournament is 3.2, the lowest figure among conference teams. Stanford is the next barometer team. The Cardinal have missed out on March Madness 10 times in this span. When they are not around, an average of 3.5 Pac-10 teams make the field.

The programs that do not matter as much in the grand scheme: Oregon State, and believe it or not, Washington. When those teams did not make the field, an average of 4.3 Pac-10 teams have qualified since the tournament expanded to 64 teams.

Here’s the list (of course, Arizona does not factor into the equation because the Wildcats have qualified for the NCAA tournament since 1984-85):

1. UCLA â€" Five years missed (average of 3.2 Pac-10 teams invited)
2. Stanford â€" 10 (3.5)
3. USC â€" 16 (3.6)
4. Oregon â€" 19 (3.8)
5. Cal â€" 15 (3.9)
6. ASU â€" 21 (4.0)
7. Washington State â€" 22 (4.0)
8. Washington â€" 17 (4.3)
9. Oregon State â€" 21 (4.3)

After the Pac-10 formed in 1978-79, Arizona failed to qualify for the NCAA tournament in the first six seasons. An average of only 2.5 conference teams made the Big Dance when the Cats were not invited. However, this number is more of a result of the NCAA tournament fielding 48 teams. Coincidentally, Arizona’s streak of 25 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances started when the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

UCLA (2.9) and Stanford (2.9) are next when factoring in the total Pac-10 years. The conference did not have a hiccup when Oregon State (4.0) and Washington (3.9) did not make the field.

Is it a coincidence that in this season, when the Pac-10 is comparable to a mid-major, that Arizona, UCLA and Stanford are looking at the real possibility of not making the NCAA tournament. They are a combined 40-45 overall, the first time the three have experienced that many losses together since the league’s inception.

Three times previously the three schools combined for 44 losses â€" 1979-80, 1981-82 and 1982-83 â€" all pre-Lute Olson and Mike Montgomery years.

The conference needs UCLA and Arizona especially to be competitive from a national perspective. They play on national television the most. They generally play a difficult non-conference schedule. They are the only programs that have a national championship since the Pac-10 formed.

The unsettling news is the Bruins and Wildcats, who meet tomorrow night at McKale Center, have toyed this season with the possibility of both being lower-division teams in the Pac-10 for the first time in conference history. However, with the Bruins and Wildcats tied for fourth at 8-8 and four teams beneath them in the conference standings with one week to go, it is a safe bet that at least one will finish in the upper division.

UCLA and Arizona have finished in the upper division together 22 times in the 30-year existence of the conference, including a 17-year streak of dominance between 1984-85 and 2000-01.

Those days seem so long ago.

But as long as Sean Miller and Ben Howland are coaching these programs, the strong possibility remains that their dominant ways will be restored. The Pac-10 needs their reinforcement.

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