It was a pretty good night for the bubblers on Monday. Not perfect, but not bad at all.
Saint Mary's emphatic win over Gonzaga locks up two bids for the WCC, although that seemed like a pretty decent possibility anyway, barring a Gonzaga blowout win. Combined with victories by favorites Old Dominion (likely to get in anyway) and Siena (probably not), the size of the bubble stayed pretty much where it was, which is reason for great rejoicing for those at the cutline.
Congratulations also are in order for the Wofford Terriers, who did what William & Mary couldn't, making the NCAAs for the first time in school history. They downed Appalachian State in the SoCon final.
If Butler can close out the Horizon final on Tuesday night, at-large hopefuls will have dodged a good number of bullets -- and it could be a very, very murky couple of days sorting this out at the end of the week. There's also first-round action in the Big East and Atlantic 10, which could impact things.
Remember, records listed are Division I only, per NCAA tournament selection guidelines. All RPI and SOS data are from Monday's collegerpi.com RPI report.
Send your very valuable feedback to bubblewatch@gmail.com or to @aglock on Twitter. All submissions are read; polite, fact-based ones stand the best chance of a response. Readers who claim their team's record is wrong because they failed to read the previous paragraph will get to watch a copy of Monday's WCC final with Mark Few.
Summary key:
GW: Good wins over top-50ish foes (home league wins judged more strictly).
BL: Bad losses to teams outside top 100 or to direct bubble competitors.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Maryland
Duke remains strongly in the mix for a No. 1 seed. Maryland is playing for a protected one. Beyond those two, Clemson and Florida State look set to dance, while Georgia Tech may be playing its way right into the NIT.
SHOULD BE IN
Clemson (21-9, 9-7, RPI: 27, SOS: 23) got the split it needed and should be fine for the NCAAs. We'll keep them and the teams below in territory for now, pending one ACC tournament win, but all three are pretty much assured of a spot. The Tigers are a notch ahead of the 'Noles based on FSU solely cleaning up on the middle/bottom of the league. Clemson has better wins.
GW: Butler (N), Maryland, sweep of FSU.
BL: None, but handful to bubble competition: league foes Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, plus Illinois.
Florida State (22-8, 10-6, RPI: 35, SOS: 46) escaped Miami with a one-point win that should ensure an NCAA tournament berth. The 'Noles beat Wake Forest earlier in the week, making their league position pretty clear. They went 0-5 against Maryland, Duke and Clemson and 10-1 against everyone else.
GW: Marquette, swept Georgia Tech and beat Virginia Tech and Wake (bubble purposes).
BL: Home to N.C. State, swept by Clemson and lost to Florida (bubble purposes).
Wake Forest (19-9, 9-7, RPI: 33, SOS: 31) finally stopped messing around and beat Clemson on Sunday night, more or less ensuring an NCAA spot. The Deacons still cost themselves some seeding in the last couple of weeks, though.
GW: at Gonzaga, Xavier, Richmond, Maryland.
BL: None awful, but W&M and UNC at home, plus at Miami and N.C. State.
IN THE MIX
Virginia Tech (23-7, 10-6, RPI: 50, SOS: 130) did itself a world of good by winning at Georgia Tech on Saturday to get to 10 ACC wins. It's arguably VT's best win of the season, and now it's a lot harder to see the Hokies missing. Losing their ACC tournament opener isn't advised, but given the dearth of quality at the bubble, the Georgia Tech win may be the Hokies' golden ticket.
GW: at Georgia Tech, plus Clemson and Wake at home and vs. Seton Hall (all bubblers).
BL: Nothing awful, but at Miami and at Boston College are hurting.
Georgia Tech (18-11, 7-9, RPI: 44, SOS: 19) now is in very legitimate danger of missing the NCAAs after losing at Clemson and at home to Virginia Tech to finish under .500 in the league. Beyond the upset of Duke, there's not a ton here helping the Jackets. Now they draw North Carolina in the 7-10 game (in Greensboro), with Maryland waiting in the quarters. Tech very well may need to win both.
GW: Duke, Siena?, splits with Wake and Clemson?
BL: Swept by FSU in addition to Wake/Clemson splits (bubble purposes), lost at Miami.
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Texas, Baylor, Missouri
Kansas remains locked in as a No. 1 seed, but K-State's hopes of pushing onto that line ended abruptly with two losses this week, including a home shocker to Iowa State. Missouri joins the lock party after getting to 10-6 in the league. The only question, outside of a shock tourney champ, is whether Oklahoma State makes it, and the Cowboys are in solid shape.
SHOULD BE IN
Oklahoma State (21-9, 9-7, RPI: 28, SOS: 29) got the win over Nebraska it needed to get to 9-7 in the league. As long as the Cowboys don't lose their Big 12 tournament opener to Oklahoma, they should be fine. Even then, they're probably fine, but why risk it?
GW: at K-State, Kansas (plus Baylor and A&M at home).
BL: at Tulsa, vs. URI (for bubble purposes).
IN THE MIX
None.
Big East
Locks: Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia, Pitt
Syracuse remains entrenched as a No. 1 seed despite the loss at Louisville. That win very well may send the Cards to the NCAAs.
SHOULD BE IN
Marquette (20-10, 11-7, RPI: 59, SOS: 53) was a second away from dancing, but gave up a buzzer-beating three to Notre Dame that sent the game into overtime, where the Eagles lost. Now Marquette draws the UConn-St. John's winner Wednesday in the Big East tournament. Win there and it's done. Lose and, well, they probably should make it, but it's not a mortal lock.
GW: Xavier, Georgetown, plus Louisville for bubble purposes.
BL: at DePaul, a ton of close ones overall.
Louisville (20-11, 11-7, RPI: 31, SOS: 4) picked the right team to beat twice if the Cardinals were only going to have two high-quality wins all season. Sweeping Syracuse should see them safely make the bracket. At least they showed the capability to beat someone, which puts them ahead of other contestants in this bubble race. Avoid a first-game loss in the Big East tournament to be certain, but it's hard to see them missing at this point.
GW: Sweep of Syracuse, also beat nominal Big East bubblers UConn and USF.
BL: Charlotte (injury asterisk, but by 22), W. Carolina, at Seton Hall?
IN THE MIX
Notre Dame (21-10, 10-8, RPI: 58, SOS: 51) continued its remarkable resurgence without Luke Harangody, who returned on Saturday but only played a handful of minutes and will come off the bench the rest of the season. Good move by the Irish to confirm to the committee that what it has seen recently is what it will get in the NCAAs. Things look pretty good, unless the Irish drop their Big East tournament opener.
GW: WVU, Pitt, at Georgetown, at Marquette, UConn (for bubble purposes).
BL: Loyola Marymount, Northwestern (N), plus at Rutgers, at Seton Hall and St. John's.
Is this where it ends for the Big East? Could be.
Seton Hall (18-11, 9-9, RPI: 54, SOS: 30) is the main benefactor of UConn's and Cincinnati's demises, edging back into the picture simply by winning at Rutgers and Providence. Now the Pirates get Providence again before a potential shot at Notre Dame, which would be a second win over the Irish. If they get both, the Pirates very well could make it. If a quarterfinal win is needed, they already have beaten Pitt this season, too. It's a good draw.
GW: Pitt, at Cornell, plus Louisville, ND for bubble purposes.
BL: None bad (all in top 75), just a lot of them.
South Florida (19-11, 9-9, RPI: 64, SOS: 54) got the two it needed to close the regular season. Now the Bulls, as the No. 9 seed, get a useless game against DePaul before drawing Georgetown, which is a game they must win to have legit hopes. Get that one and show well against Syracuse? Would be interesting.
GW: at Georgetown, Pitt.
BL: Cent. Michigan, vs. South Carolina?, plus big Big East issues: Louisville, Marquette, and swept by ND.
Connecticut (17-14, 7-11, RPI: 55, SOS: 3) could have made half a case at 8-10 in the conference that its schedule should be rewarded. Not at 7-11, after a dismal loss at South Florida followed a defeat at Notre Dame. The Huskies don't have the worst Big East tournament draw, although they play at St. John's to open. It probably would take a run to the tourney final at this point, though. Maybe more.
GW: Texas, at Villanova, West Virginia.
BL: at Michigan, a ton in Big East play.
Cincinnati (16-14, 7-11, RPI: 68, SOS: 10) also lost twice and basically is in UConn's boat, despite a sweep of the Huskies.
GW: Vandy (N), Maryland (N), swept UConn (for bubble purposes).
BL: At Seton Hall and St. John's are disappointing; Gonzaga (OT) and Xavier (2OT) could be costly.
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