NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction and The Stealth Bubble Team - Bleacherreport.com

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It’s Bracket Buster Weekend, the weekend where schools from non-BCS conferences get a shot to showcase themselves against other top tier non-BCS schools. Winners of these games usually are teams that end up dancing in March.

 

Teams that desperately need a strong win to prove they belong in the tournament including; Cornell, Charlotte, UTEP, St Mary’s and San Diego State. Oh wait, none of those are in the Bracket Busters.

 

Instead we get a group of match-ups where one team desperately needing a big win faces a similar sized school also needing a big win.

 

The original intent was to provide a George Mason scenario from 2006, where a win over Wichita State helped catapult them to an at-large bid and eventually the Final Four. Instead, the game has become an elimination game, another reason why the committee should not take a team from a smaller conference and take the 8^th best Big East team.

 

Butler and Northern Iowa are most likely getting at an-large bid, and they have home games this weekend. The bubble is pretty soft this year, so Old Dominion would most likely get in anyway and Siena has at lease a case if they win out until the MAAC final.

 

Now if Old Dominion and Siena lose this weekend, their at-large bids take a major hit while Butler and Northern Iowa gain little. The risk has become greater than the reward for these teams, and in the last few years the committee has taken less and less teams from non-BCS conferences.

 

Bubble talk in general is annoying, since the talk always becomes skewed towards BCS teams simply because more people have seen them play.

 

William and Mary has a strong RPI, but who has seen them play this year? Florida has to be better; they’ve been on television about a dozen times this year. Big wins and RPI are obsessions while achievement is minimized.

 

My favorite example is how Washington is still listed as a possible at-large team, even though they have 1 road win and have been mediocre in a terrible conference. They have an RPI of 52â€"they must be good is the crazy rationale. Meanwhile, a team that could finish the season 30-4 is not even mentioned as an at-large candidate.

 

I know Murray State’s schedule has been terrible, and the only buzz the Racers have received this year was from a few days ago when the guy made the half court shot from his knees. They have a really good shot to go undefeated in the regular season in their conference and of course have a bracket buster game that can only harm them against Morgan State.

 

The NCAA has never held a team out of the tournament that had 30 wins, and the biggest thing against Murray State would be an RPI of 79 and no big wins. They did play California really well at Berkeley, something Washington didn’t do.

 

I have a theory about this if Murray State does go 30-4 and doesn’t get an automatic bid. Murray State will not get an at-large bid, and they will be the example used to push expansion of the tournament. Even though expansion would help BCS conferences the most, Murray State will be the poster child of increasing the field.

 

The solution is simple if this scenario plays out and the committee isn’t sure if Murray State is worthy enough. Give them an at-large bid, in the play-in game. That way only one conference champion plays in that terrible game and Murray State would have to prove their worth with a win. Plus it would set up one fascinating 1 vs 16 team.

 

Mock Bracket for Friday February 19^th

(This was is a little different because I added a scenario. In this case, I had St Mary’s and Wichita State winning their conference tournaments, taking away 2 at-large bids. The scenario was much easier than sorting through the mediocrity to find 2 more teams)

 

South Region (Houston)

 

Oklahoma City (Thursday)

1          Kansas

16        North Texas

 

8          Rhode Island

9          UTEP

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